Potential great powers

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The present day governments thought of as great powers and the potential great powers. The US is also referred to as a superpower.

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UNSC Permanent members      Current great power. ^{(China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and United States)} G4 Nations (UNSC Reform)      Emerging great power. ^(India)      Potential great power. ^(Brazil)      Economic power only. ^{(Germany and Japan)}

In international relations, a great power is a nation or state that has the ability to exert its influence on a global scale. Such potential derives from a mix of elements, such as natural resources, industrial capacity, military forces, population size, and popular support for the government. Economic capability determines the military potential of individual states. For this reason, the best single indicator of a state’s great-power potential may be its total gross domestic product (GDP).^[1]

Academics and political analysts predict the possible rise of potential great powers in the 21st century, mentioning two candidates. Whether the Federative Republic of Brazil, ^[2] and the Republic of India,^[3] will be future great powers is a matter of ongoing debate. While both Brazil and India are already regional giants that exercise large regional influence and have the potential to become great powers in the present century,^[4] India also has the potential to become a superpower.^[5]

[edit] Brazil

Federative Republic of Brazil

The Federative Republic of Brazil has been recently suggested as a potential candidate for great power status,^{[6][7][8][9][10][11][2][4][12][13]} and the country has a good chance of emerging as the world’s few great powers without nuclear weapons.^[14][15] Brazil is the fifth-largest country by geographical area, the fifth most populous country, and the fourth most populous democracy in the world. Brazil will become an economic superpower by 2050 if its growth rate remains at 3.5 percent per year, Jim O'Neill said at the Goldman Sachs report called BRIC.^[16] He said an annual growth rate of 5 percent, which the Brazilian government aims to achieve in the next few years, would be fabulous; if Brazil sticks to an inflation target of 4.5 percent per year for the next five years, it will certainly help the country accomplish this goal, O'Neill added.^[11][17] It was Charles de Gaulle who once said, "Brazil has a great future. But it always will have."^[7] The country is currently considered an "agricultural superpower"^[18][19] and an "oil superpower"^[20][21] due to its vast resources and production in those areas.^[22][23] "We will transform this country, definitively, into a great economy and a great nation," said Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.^[8] From Wall Street to the World Trade Organization, Brazil is finally punching its weight with a booming economy and stronger global leadership.^[17][24][25]

Keen to transform itself from developing nation to world power, Brazil is also presiding over a UN stabilisation force in conflict-ridden Haiti. Paulo Cordeiro, the country's former ambassador in Port-au-Prince, said the presence of Brazilian troops was a "demonstration of Brazil ... wanting more responsibility. I think Brazil has already reached a certain level of development in which the international community starts calling on it to act more."^[8] Brazil's economic potential has been anticipated for decades, but it had until recently consistently failed to achieve investor expectations.^[26] Only in recent years has the country established a framework of political, economic, and social policies^[27] that allowed it to resume consistent growth.^[7][15] In February, when the government announced that it had paid off its foreign debt, Lula boasted that Brazil had "taken an extremely important step towards transforming itself into a country taken seriously in the financial world".^[8] The result has been solid and paced economic development that rival its early 1970's "miracle years", as reflected in its expanding capital markets, lowest unemployment rates in decades, and consistent international trade surpluses - that led to the accumulation of reserves and liquidation of foreign debt.^[7][8][15] During the last three years of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's tenure, which dates back to the year 2000, Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate has skyrocketed from a passable one percent to an impressive nearly six percent.^[10] Free trade, an idea toyed with during the late 1990s, finally became a solidified certainty for the nation’s businesses.^[10] Many, viewing the dismal inflation-consumed performance of the 1980s and early 1990s, with a currency adding zeros faster than the printing presses could turn, believed Brazil could never make it, especially with a former sociology professor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, becoming president followed by a leftist populist, the present president, Lula. But indeed it is happening.^[28] Cardoso practised fiscal prudence, stabilized the currency, and initiated the first real reforms of Brazil’s bloated bureaucracy and feudal inefficiencies.^[7] Brazil’s diversity places it in a position of distinction in the South American continent and strongly influences the attraction of foreign investment.^[29][30]

The South American nation has a head start on India and China. It has been developing in its sometime madcap way for over 100 years. Between 1960 and 1980, Brazil doubled its per capita income, an achievement that was only surpassed by the later growth spurts of the East Asian countries.^[15][14] Unlike China and India, Brazil is primed to be a world superpower. This is because Brazil possesses something both Indian and Chinese entrepreneurs long for: a stable platform upon which to trade.^[10][6][31] "Brazil's international leadership has grown a great deal over the last six or seven years. It will enhance its importance in South America and the world as an energy supplier, and that translates into political power," said the University of Brasília's Fleischer, citing Brazil's involvement in the United Nations mission and its leadership of the emerging nations in the Doha Development Round. The tendency is for this influence to keep growing.^[8][2]

[edit] Facts in favour

Christ the Redeemer, one of the New Seven Wonders of the World.

Brazil is finally punching its weight with a booming economy and stronger global leadership.^[32] The economy was previously plagued by boom and bust cycles and rampant inflation, and Brazil was for long dubbed the eternal "country of the future", always promising much but never delivering.^[17] Now it is growing at rates of around 5 percent, helping secure its place as one of the four so-called BRIC major emerging economies along with Russia, India and China, that collectively represent the world's economic future.^[16] Once an economic basket case, even by emerging market standards, Brazil has staged a remarkable recovery and now promises to become a major global power.^[9] Brazilians are waiting nervously to see what the world has in store for their fragile economy, but have already done a lot to make their country stronger.^[33] Brazil's booming economy is shifting into overdrive, with biofuels and deep-water oil providing energy independence and the government collecting enough cash to irrigate the desert and pave highways across the Amazon.^[24] For decades, Brazilians have felt their once-backward nation deserved a starring role on the world stage. Now it may be getting one.^[2] The boom in commodities and credit has played a part in fuelling the rise of Bovespa, the Brazilian stock market.^[34]

The ratings agency Standard & Poor's raised Brazilian debt to investment grade. The upgrades reflect the maturation of Brazil's institutions and policy framework, as evidenced by the easing of fiscal and external debt burdens and improved trend growth prospects.^[35] So that's the Brazilian economic miracle.^[36] Brazil has incredible potential to produce a sustained economic growth story and a vibrant middle class with it. That's why Brazil is the most attractive Latin American market, according to a Santander Investment survey of buy-side analysts and hedge fund managers.^[6] Yet there are reasons to believe that South America's economic powerhouse of 190 million people is starting to count in the world. Economic growth has risen steadily, to 5.4% last year.^[21] Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP) says another nearby discovery might hold as much as 33 billion barrels, which would make it the third-largest field ever found. That alone would be enough to raise Brazil to eighth position in the global oil rankings, transform the country in energy superpower.^[37]

[edit] Economy

Main article: Economy of Brazil

São Paulo, symbol of Brazil's economic power.

Brazil has a moderate free market and export-oriented economy.^[33] Measured nominally, its Gross Domestic Product surpasses a trillion dollars with USD 1.313 trillion, the tenth in the world and the third in the Americas;^[38] measured by purchasing power parity, $1.835 trillion, making it the ninth largest economy in the world and the second largest in the Americas, after the United States.^[39] Brazil's currency, the real, recently hit a nine-year-high against the dollar, inflation is under control and millions of Brazilians are being propelled towards a new middle class.^[8][2] Last week, meanwhile, Brazil was awarded "investment grade" status by the financial rating agency Standard & Poor's, sending the country's stocks soaring to an all-time high.^[40][41][42] Its nominal GDP per capita has surpassed USD 6,937 in 2007^[43] and according PPP, USD 9,695.^[44]

The country’s scientific and technological development is argued to be attractive to foreign direct investment, which has averaged US$ 20 billion per year the last years, compared to only USD 2 billion/year last decade,^[45] thus showing a remarkable growth. The agricultural sector, locally called the agronegócio sector, has also been remarkably dynamic: for two decades this sector has kept Brazil amongst the most highly productive countries in areas related to the rural sector.^[45][46][47] The owner of a sophisticated technological sector, Brazil develops projects that range from submarines to aircraft and has an advanced space program: with significant capabilities to launch vehicles, launch sites and satellite manufacturing,^{[48][49][50][51]} and was the only country in the Southern Hemisphere to integrate the team responsible for the construction of the International Space Station (ISS).^[52] On 2006 AEB astronaut Marcos Pontes became the first Brazilian and the first native Portuguese-speaking person to go into space, where he stayed on the International Space Station for a week.^[53]

[edit] Politics

Main article: Politics of Brazil

Brasília, house of Brazil's political power.

Brazil is the most important political and economic power in Latin America.^[54][55][56] Brazilian foreign policy has recently aimed to strengthen ties with other South American countries, engage in multilateral diplomacy through the United Nations and the Organization of American States. Brazil's foreign policy is a byproduct of the country's unique position as a great power in Latin America, a leader among developing countries and an emerging superpower.^[57][58][59]

Brazil has a large global network of diplomatic missions, and maintains diplomatic relations with every country in the world, with the exception of seven countries. The country is a charter member of the United Nations and participates in many of its specialized agencies. It has contributed troops to UN peacekeeping efforts in the Middle East, the former Belgian Congo, Cyprus, Mozambique, Angola, and more recently East Timor and Haiti (MINUSTAH).^[60] Brazil has been a member of the UN Security Council nine times, most recently 2004-2005. The nation is currently seeking a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. It is a member of the G4, an organization of Brazil, Germany, Japan, and India, all nations who are currently seeking permanent representation.^[61] Brazilian Antarctica is the name of the Antarctic territory south of 60°S, and from 28°W to 53°W, designated by the country as its Zone of Interest.^[62][63] Brazil's Antarctic geopolitics are reinforced by the notion of Brazilian grandeza which, Brazilians feel, will be part of the country's eventual status as a world superpower. Brazilian analysts and officials have often stressed Brazil's special geopolitical status as a superpower sitting astride key navigation sea lanes of communication in the Atlantic from the Equator to Antarctica.^[64]

[edit] Military

Main article: Military of Brazil

Brazilian Army troops before boarding for MINUSTAH peacekeeping mission in Haiti.

Brazil has one of the largest defense budgets^(12th) and armed forces^(18th) in the world.^[65][66] The Armed forces of Brazil comprise the Brazilian Army, the Brazilian Navy, and the Brazilian Air Force.^[67] It is the largest army, navy and air force in Latin America, with 91,314,740 available military manpower, 66 missile defense weapons and 1,676 armored vehicles; a 27,307-ton aircraft carrier, the NAe São Paulo and other 89 naval units; and 1,272 aircrafts.^[65][68][69] Brazil's history after independence is marked by early territorial wars against its neighboring countries which have greatly affected the formation of current political boundaries. For example, the Argentina-Brazil War, fought over the present day territory of Uruguay established that nation's independence.^[70] An armed conflict with Paraguay led to an establishment of Brazil's current border with that nation after a decisive victory.^[71] Modern activity includes participation in both World Wars along with internal struggles due to military rule, and participation in right wing military operations, such as Operation Condor.^[72] Recent developments include participation in peacekeeping efforts after the 2004 Haiti rebellion.^[60]

Based on Brazil's history, it is believed that the country does not possess any weapons of mass destruction. Although a covert nuclear weapons program was pursued by Brazil under a military government in the 1980s, it was ended after the rise of an elected government in 1985. Brazil has a program to produce enriched uranium for power plants using Zippe-type centrifuges, officially opening the Resende enrichment plant in 2006.^[73][74] If Brazil decided to pursue a nuclear weapon, the centrifuges at the Resende plants could easily be reconfigured to produce enough highly enriched uranium to make a bomb quite quickly - possibly around six bombs per year.^[75][76] Brazil wishes to develop a nuclear submarine fleet, and in 2007 authorised the construction of a prototype submarine propulsion reactor.^[77][78][79]

[edit] Energy

Main article: Energy policy of Brazil

Itaipu Dam, the world's largest hydroelectric plant by energy generation.

Brazil is considered to have the greatest biodiversity of any country on the planet, containing more than one-third of all flora and fauna in the world.^[80][81] The country is known to possess extremely rich mineral deposits, although the country's resources are still not yet completely surveyed.^[82] Brazil has the world’s largest reserves of niobium (86.9 %) and tantalite (62.5 %); the second largest reserve of graphite; the sixth largest reserves of iron ore, manganese, bauxite and uranium, with only 25 percent of the territory surveyed.^[83] Brazil produces 90 percent of the world's supply of gems, such as diamonds, aquamarines, topazes, amethysts, tourmalines, and emeralds.^[80][84]

Brazil is one of the largest energy consumers in the world^(10th) and the largest in South America. It is also a pioneer in many fields, including ethanol^[85][86] production and deepwater and ultra-deep water oil production. The nation is the world's largest producer of ethanol and the world's largest exporter, and it is considered to have the world's first sustainable biofuels economy and the biofuel industry leader.^{[87][88][89][90]} In 2006, Brazil had 11.2 billion barrels (1,780,000,000 m³) of proven oil reserves, second-largest in South America after Venezuela. The vast majority of proven reserves are located at Campos and Santos offshore basins on the southeast coast of Brazil.^[91][92] In November 2007, Petrobras announced that it believes the offshore Tupi oil field has between 5 and 8 billion barrels (1,300,000,000 m³) of recoverable light oil, which could result in Brazil becoming one of the largest producers of oil in the world.^[93][94][95] On January 2008, Petrobras announced the discovery of the Jupiter field, a huge natural gas and condensate (very light oil) field which could equal the Tupi oil field in size (5-8 billion BOE).^[96][97][98] "We want to join OPEC and make oil cheaper", said the Brazilian president.^[99][21] With biofuels, investment in nuclear power, a sophisticated hydroelectricity programme and massive oil finds, Brazil has achieved energy independence.^[9]

[edit] Culture

Main article: Culture of Brazil

Maracanã Stadium, the temple of Brazilian sports.

Brazil is an influential country in music, cuisine and sports.^[100] Brazil's cultural tradition extends to its music styles which include samba, bossa nova, forró, frevo, pagode and many others. Brazil has also contributed to classical music, which can be seen in the works of many composers like Heitor Villa-Lobos. Brazil is also the land of the São Paulo State Symphony, regarded as one of the outstanding orchestras in Latin America and in the world.^[101] In the 1950's, Antônio Carlos Jobim, Vinícius de Moraes, Baden Powell and João Gilberto popularized the Bossa Nova sound,^[102] which was followed by Brazilian Popular Music.^[103] In the late 1960s, Tropicalismo was popularized by Caetano Veloso and Gilberto Gil.^[104]

Sports in Brazil which are widely practiced and popular in the country, as well as others which originated there or have some cultural significance. The Brazilian people are very involved in sports, and the most popular one is football by a wide margin, and can be considered a cultural phenomenon.^[105] The Brazilian national football team is currently ranked second in the world according to the FIFA World Rankings.^[106] They have been victorious in the World Cup tournament a record five times. Some sport variations have their origins in Brazil. Beach football, futsal (official version of indoor football) and footvolley emerged in the country as variations of football. Brazil is ranked first in Volleyball as in masculine as in feminine according to the FIVB World Rankings. In martial arts, Brazilians have developed Capoeira,^[107] Vale tudo,^[108] and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.^[109] Brazil has undertaken the organization of large-scale sporting events: the country organized and hosted the 1950 FIFA World Cup^[110] and is chosen to host the 2014 FIFA World Cup event.^[111] São Paulo organized the IV Pan American Games in 1963^[112] and Rio de Janeiro hosted the XV Pan American Games in 2007.^[113] Brazil also tried for the fourth time to host the Summer Olympics with Rio de Janeiro in 2016.^[114]

[edit] Facts against

Located between some of the richest areas of Rio de Janeiro, the Rocinha favela is testimony to high economic inequality within Brazil.

Brazil has been unable to reflect its recent economic achievements into social development.^[115] Poverty, urban violence, growing social security debts, inefficient public services, and the low value of the minimum wage are some of the main social issues that currently challenge the Brazilian government. The rate of poverty is in part attributed to the country's economic inequality. Brazil ranks among the world's highest nations in the Gini coefficient index of inequality assessment. According to Fundação Getúlio Vargas, in 2006 the rate of people living below the poverty line based on labour income was of 19.31% of the population,^[116] a 33% reduction considering the previous three years.^[117] Poverty in Brazil is most visually represented by the various favelas, slums in the country's metropolitan areas and remote upcountry regions that suffer with economic underdevelopment and below-par standards of living.

There are also great differences in wealth and welfare between regions. While the Northeast region has the worst economic indicators nationwide, many cities in the South and Southeast enjoy First World socioeconomic standards,^[118] with roughly 23.8 homicides per 100,000 residents.^[119] The level of violence in some large urban centers is comparable to that of a war zone.^[120][121] Analysts generally suggest the alarming social inequality as the major reason behind this problem. Muggings, robberies, kidnappings^[122] and gang violence^[123] are common in the largest cities. Police brutality and corruption are widespread.^[124][125] Inefficient public services,^{[126][127][128]} especially those related to security, education and health, severely affect quality of life. Minimum wages fail in fulfilling the constitutional requirements set in article 7, IV, regarding living standards. Brazil currently ranks 70th in the Human Development Index list, with a high HDI (0,800). The social security system is considered unreliable and has been historically submerged in large debts and graft, which have been steadily increasing along the 1990s.^[129]

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[edit] See also