Piers Corbyn

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Piers Richard Corbyn (born 10 March 1947)^[1] is, in the meteorological community, a maverick British weather forecaster^[2] and consultant, and owner of the business Weather Action which makes weather forecasts up to a year in advance, and which he also bets on. He also was a left wing squatters rights^[3] activist.

Contents 1 Personal life 2 Weather Action 2.1 Predictions 2.2 Evaluation of predictions 2.3 Reliability of forecasts in 2007 2.4 Forecasts for 2008 2.5 Response to media criticism 3 Political activism 4 Student representation 5 References

[edit] Personal life

Corbyn was born in Chippenham Wiltshire in 1947. He began recording weather and climate patterns at age 15, constructing his own observation equipment, and obtained a degree in physics at Imperial College London, where he was also in 1969 the President of the Student Union. His first papers were published as an undergraduate in the Royal Meteorological Society's journal Weather discussing his brine-filled barometer;^[1] in the Journal of the British Astronomical Association for his home-based measurements of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit; and in the Geographical Journal (of the Royal Geographical Society) for a study on the pebbles. Following some years of activism, he studied astrophysics in 1979 at Queen Mary College, London, later examining the relationship between the Earth's weather and climate and solar activity. Following some years of weather prediction as an occupation, he formed the business 'Weather Action' in 1995.^[1]

[edit] Weather Action

Weather Action is the business through which Corbyn sells his predictions. He has in the past bet on these predictions. His betting attracted much interest in 1990, when his predictions of bad weather were met by a year of the "worst extremes".^[4]

Weather Action was formerly listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) as 'Weather Action Holdings plc' in 1997,^[5] and was transferred back to private ownership in 1999, primarily because of increasing losses sustained and the impact of costs related to public status (around £70,000 annually) compared to annual revenues of £250,000.^[6] Corbyn acquired back the weather prediction business; the listed shell was taken over by investors and changed its name to 'InternetAction.com', with the intent of researching potential net-based takeover targets.^[7]

Corbyn has a wide range of weather sensitive customers, including gas and electricity companies, farmers and retailers.^[6] - for example, PolyGram staggered their release dates and promotional tours for the motion picture Bean around Corbyn's predictions^{[citation needed]}.

[edit] Predictions

Corbyn's predictions are based on what is called "The Solar Weather Technique."^[8] The technique "combines statistical analysis of over a century of historical weather patterns with clues derived from solar observations."^[1] He considers past weather patterns and solar observations and sun-earth magnetic connectivity. Conventional meteorology claims that such influences cause minimal impact on the Earth's atmosphere^[9]. Corbyn has declined to publish the details of his method.

Corbyn is also a global warming sceptic, and a noted dissenter in reports about the storms in Europe in 2000^[10] and in Martin Durkin's documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle. Corbyn has stated that the anthropogenic contribution to global warming is minimal with any increase in temperature due to increased solar activity. However recent research from Lancaster University has shown no link between solar activity and climate change. ^[11]

[edit] Evaluation of predictions

The sole academic work conducted involving Corbyn's work, published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (2001), took Corbyn's 'likely damaging gale periods' predictions for the island of Britain for October 1995 to September 1997. Corbyn's enlisted work then (which was carried out for a consortium of insurance companies) was only for the most likely periods of the strongest winds and specifically not a full forecast to include lesser winds:^[12]

"Forecasts prepared by Weather Action would repay further attention. The results provide little evidence to dismiss the observed success rates as being attributable to mere chance or good fortune. Indeed the balance of evidence indicates that the system performs better than chance although it is recognized that the margin of success differs greatly between the seasons and is lowest in winter when gales are most frequent."

"This analysis has been wholly empirical in nature, seeking only to establish the success levels of the gale forecasts. Other aspects of the forecasts have not been considered in this evaluation. Inevitably however these results draw into the debate questions surrounding the methodology by which the forecasts are prepared. This is not, however, the arena in which such issues should be taken up."

Researchers also stated of Corbyn's predictions that:^[13]

"It is unusual for most of the detail to be completely correct, but equally it is rare for nearly everything to be wrong ... Some forecasts are clearly very good, and a few are very poor, but the majority fall in the gray area in between, where an optimistic assessor would find merit, but a critical assessor would find fault."

In accordance with this view, critics point to inaccurate predictions, such as a white Easter in 1989,^[14] and "raging weather" in September 1997.^[15]

Outside the scientific arena, according to Corbyn in 1998, independent research conducted by insurers showed that for a particular day, up to nine months in advance, Weather Action's forecasts have achieved an accuracy rate of 55 per cent, rising to 80 per cent for 24 hours either side.^[16]

[edit] Reliability of forecasts in 2007

Corbyn predicted from 11 months ahead^{[citation needed]} two major storm periods for parts of the British Isles and much of Europe for November 2007.

Believing it was "vital" for the public to be aware of the potential destruction, it was reported in the Daily Express on 17th October 2007.^[17] On 17th October, Corbyn predicted “ferocious” weather and that hurricane force winds – gusting up to 130mph as weather fronts gain in intensity – could wreak havoc across the country; and that the most severe weather event would take place during the last week of November, causing chaos. In the event, much of the weather was not exceptional for the time of year, and little or no damage was reported on the UK mainland in November.^[18]

However, on 17th October, Corbyn also predicted "From November 8 to 13 another system will batter the nation with winds of between 90mph to 110mph. While the worst affected areas will be Scotland and Northern Ireland it will still pack a hefty punch elsewhere". There was definitely a hefty punch elsewhere, and this led to several emergency situations on both sides of the North Sea. ^[19]. ^{[20] [21]}.

Corbyn later changed his prediction for the second period by some 4 days^{[citation needed]}, which then coincided with an extreme sea-state on the Irish coast, where 55 ft waves appear to be the largest in modern records.^[22]

In the Netherlands, Corbyn warned email enquirers^{[citation needed]} that whilst the Netherlands (and not just the two provinces by the name of North and South Holland) and Belgium were not in the core storm track, some potentially damaging winds were very likely. Such winds did occur in parts of Belgium and then Netherlands (and France, Ireland, Wales, England, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Germany).

[edit] Forecasts for 2008

At the end of 2007 , WeatherAction predicted that temperatures in January could plummet to -17C in the Midlands, and that the average temperature for January would be close to freezing. This prediction was dismissed by the Met Office in an erratic Guardian article on 2nd January ^[23]. After an unsuccessful start to a severely cold January predition, Mr. Corbyn blamed the incorrect forecast on an undefined 'procedural error,' but insisted that the second half of the month would be very cold, specifically the period 21st-27th January, where he stated on his website:

""The period and forecast maps for the very cold ‘dipole’ patterns 15-21st Jan will probably be shifted later to 21st- 23rd Jan. Some exceptionally strong blizzard conditiuons (sic) and very strong cold winds are likely in this period. An ongoing similar situation with widespread heavy snow, strong winds and blizzards will continue 24th- 27th Jan."^[24]

The period 21st-23rd January continued very mild for the country as a whole, but with a brief colder interlude for Scotland and the far north of England, with some snow in the Highland and Pennine Mountain regions, not out of the ordinary for January. ^[25]. The Met Office run Hadley Observation Centre had the CET from the 1-22nd January running at 6.4C, or 2.8C above normal for the time of year. This made it highly unlikely that Corbyn's very cold January forecast would come to fruition.

The final CET for January 2008 ended up over 3degC above the standard reference average making the predictions for a cold Jan very poor. In fact it ended up being one of the top Januarys since records began.

[edit] Response to media criticism

Following criticism of Weather Action's forecasts in The Times and The Guardian, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn banned the use of any extracts of them in any articles unless they were approved by Corbyn. In addition the above newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons were also explicity forbidden from quoting them.^[26]

[edit] Political activism

Corbyn was a housing and squatters rights activist in the North Paddington area of Westminster City Council in the mid-1970s. In 1974 he fought for a seat on the council as a "Squatters and Tenants" candidate; in 1978 he and a colleague fought as 'Decent Housing' candidates.^[27] In the 1977 GLC election he was the International Marxist Group candidate for Lambeth Central.^[28] He and all the squatters in Elgin Avenue were - as a result of their campaign which included the building of barricades against eviction - rehoused to Southwark, South London, by the GLC in 1975. He later moved from that rehousing in Rust Square to the Alvey Estate in Southwark where he became a leader of the Tenants Association. He was a member of the Labour Party and a campaigns organiser, but has since left it. His brother, Jeremy Corbyn, has been Labour MP for Islington North since 1983.

[edit] Student representation

As President of Imperial College Union between 1969-1970 Corbyn was successful in establishing for the first time a sabbatical union president, enabling the elected student leader to be registered at the College and not having to study or pay fees, (in fact they received a grant from the college and union)

As well as laying the foundations for the future, Corbyn negotiated a retrospective sabbatical for himself, though he appears to have served as union president after completing his studies.

Piers set up a short lived "Imperial College Representative Council", seats on which were distributed between members of the college on the basis of their numbers, a system which nearly gave students a majority. The ICAUT, a staff union, refused to co-operate with this student led initiative. While this particular council did not survive increased student representation on college boards committees was like the sabbatical president a lasting success of Corbyn's time as ICU president.

Piers' dress has been viewed as being a statement against upper class formality. Piers, along with the then rector, Lord Penney received the Queen when she visited to open a new administrative building in 1969, wearing a cravat, long hair and beard for the occasion. During the ceremonial visit, in front of 900 people Corbyn petitioned the Queen asking for students to be given a greater say in the governance of the college. ^[29]

[edit] References

• Some of these results were reported on the BBC2 ‘QED’ documentary (June 1996) about Piers and WeatherAction.