Ohio gubernatorial election, 2006
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The Ohio gubernatorial election of 2006 was held on November 7, 2006, and was a race for the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Ohio. Previous governor Bob Taft could not run for re-election, as Ohio governors are limited to two consecutive terms in office.
The general election pitted Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell against Democratic U.S. Representative Ted Strickland, who represents the 6th Congressional district, including Steubenville, Marietta and Portsmouth. Strickland's running mate was former state Attorney General Lee Fisher, while Blackwell chose state Representative Tom Raga as the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor. Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor in Ohio run on a single ballot line.
At about 8:45 PM EST on November 7th, 2006, Blackwell conceded to Democratic opponent Strickland, who captured about 60% of the vote.[1] Strickland will serve from 2007 to 2011.
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[edit] Historical background
[edit] National attention
As the election approached, there was increasing national attention on the Ohio gubernatorial election, focused largely on the ability of the Republican party to maintain control in Ohio. Results in Ohio in 2006 were regarded as a possible bellwether for the 2008 US Presidential election;[2] Ohio's electoral votes play a crucial part of winning the presidency for Republicans. Since the inception of the Republican party in 1854, no Republican presidential candidate has ever been elected to office without the electoral votes of Ohio. In contrast, a Democratic candidate has won the national election without the support of Ohio seven times (1836, 1844, 1856, 1884, 1892, 1944, 1960). Overall Ohio's electoral votes have gone to the winner of the election 78% of the time.
Comedian and talk-show host Jon Stewart taped The Daily Show from Oct 30-Nov 2, 2006 at the Roy Bowen Theater on the campus of The Ohio State University. The series of episodes was entitled "Battlefield Ohio: The Daily Show’s Midwest Midterm Midtacular" and was intended to bring further national attention to the election in Ohio.[3] This was only the second time that the show had been filmed in a location other than New York City.
[edit] Ohio, Blackwell, and the 2004 election
Ohio played a decisive role in the 2004 US Presidential election, as Ohio's electoral votes would have been sufficient to swing the election from George W. Bush to John Kerry had Kerry won in Ohio. Given the importance of the state, Blackwell's role in the conduct of the election was closely scrutinized. As Ohio's Secretary of State, Blackwell was the state's chief elections officer -- but he was also an honorary co-chair for the Bush re-election campaign and the most prominent backer of a concurrent ballot measure to ban same-sex marriage.
Leading up to the election Blackwell made a number of decisions about the election process, most of which placed additional restrictions on voting. Opponents argued that Blackwell's decisions would have the effect of suppressing turnout among vulnerable populations, most of whom would be expected to vote for Kerry in the presidential contest -- and that Blackwell had a conflict of interest as a co-chair of Bush's re-election campaign. Supporters argued that the Secretary of State had always been a partisan political office and that there was nothing wrong with Blackwell having a preference in the presidential elections; they denied that Blackwell's decisions were designed to benefit Bush.
Reaction to Blackwell's conduct was so strong that a coalition of left-leaning organizations attempted to amend the Ohio Constitution to abolish the Secretary of State's oversight of elections, as part of a package of election reforms. The proposal was rejected by voters in November 2005.[citation needed] Dissatisfaction with Blackwell's involvement in the 2004 election apparently hurt him with Ohio's African-American community; according to exit polls, Blackwell received only 20% of the vote in 2006 [4], compared to much higher showings in his previous races.[citation needed] Exit polls showed that confidence in the election process among Ohio voters was even lower than voters in Florida, the state which produced an unprecedented five-week post-election fight in 2000. [5] But among voters "very confident" that votes would be counted accurately, Blackwell actually led Strickland.
[edit] Republican control
Entering the 2006 campaign, Ohio had been dominated for a decade by Republicans. Republicans had held the governorship for sixteen years, occupied all statewide constitutional offices, and controlled both houses of the state legislature.
[edit] Important scandals
[edit] Bob Taft
At a low point in his popularity in November 2005, Taft garnered only a 6.5% approval rating.[6] According to polling organization Survey USA, this was a lower proportion than any governor in the United States. [7] A poll taken in May 2006 indicated that only 2% of Ohio residents "strongly approved" of Taft's performance. The low approval ratings led pollster John Zogby to comment, "I'm not aware of anyone who's ever sunk lower."[8][9]
Taft's low approval ratings follow several years of scandals. In 2005, Taft pled no contest to four ethics violations involving illegal gifts totaling $5,800.[10]. He was convicted of four misdemeanors and was ordered to pay a $4,000 fine and apologize to the people of Ohio. Taft is the only Ohio governor to be convicted of a crime while in office.
[edit] Thomas Noe and Coingate
In 1996 the Republican controlled Ohio General Assembly removed a restriction requiring that state investments only be in safer, though lower-yielding, bonds. After the restriction was eliminated, hundreds of millions of dollars in state funds were invested by a number of investment firms with close ties to the Republican party. Among those investments was $50 million of the Ohio Bureau of Worker's Compensation fund which was given to Thomas Noe, an investor in rare and unusual coins and major donor to the Republican Party including then-governor Bob Taft.[11]
In 2005 it was revealed that Noe could only account for $13 million of the original investment. Among the missing funds were two coins worth over $300,000 alone. Throughout 2005, there was a protracted legal battle over the release of records which Noe claimed were privileged and prosecutors claimed were in the public domain. The Ohio Supreme Court ruled 5-2 in favor of the prosecutors. On February 13, 2006, Noe was indicted on 53 counts, including: engaging in a pattern of corrupt activity (which carries a mandatory 10 year sentence), 11 counts of theft, 11 counts of money laundering, 8 counts of tampering with records, and 22 counts of forgery. The charges also accuse Noe of personally stealing $2 million. On November 20, 2006 Noe was found guilty of theft, money laundering, forgery and corrupt activity, and was sentenced to serve 18 years in prison, fined $213,000, ordered to pay the $2 million dollar cost of his prosecution and make restitution to the Ohio Bureau of Worker's Compensation.
Also in 2006, Noe pled guilty to three charges of using over a dozen people in 2004 as illegal "conduits" to make donations to George W. Bush's re-election campaign of over $45,000 in order to skirt laws limiting donations in federal campaigns to $2,000. Noe was convicted and sentenced to 27 months in federal prison and ordered to pay a $136,000 fine.[12].
[edit] May 2 primary
On May 2, 2006 Blackwell and Raga won the Republican nomination with 56% of the vote, defeating Attorney General Jim Petro.[13] State auditor Betty Montgomery had also been a candidate, but withdrew from the contest and instead ran for state attorney general, an office she lost to Democrat Marc Dann. [14]
Despite commercials preaching his conservative values, Petro was never able to shake his previous pro-choice stance. [15] As the election approached, the barbs grew worse between Petro and Blackwell, only serving to bring more negative attention to the Ohio GOP.
Strickland won the Democratic nomination with 79% of the vote against state representative Bryan Flannery.[16] Strickland was originally also in a tough fight for the nomination, as Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman was also campaigning and raising money. Before attacks were traded between the nominees, Coleman bowed out, citing a need to spend more time with his family. [17]
[edit] Campaign finance
The race for the 2006 election was, in 2006, the most expensive in Ohio's history. Reflective of both the national significance of the race, as well as the powerful fund-raising capabilities of both parties, Blackwell and Strickland passed the previous fund raising record set in 1998. That record, set when current Governor Bob Taft was running against Lee Fisher (Strickland's running mate), totaled a combined $18 million by the end of the election. As of September 9, 2006 Blackwell and Strickland had already raised a combined $21.2 million dollars. Strickland led Blackwell, $11.2 million to $10 million. [18] Most of the money raised in Ohio by both major party candidates came from a single zip code in downtown Columbus, which is home to their respective parties, labor and political groups, lobbyists and lawyers.[19]
A significant amount of money was spent by private groups on behalf of the candidates as well, the estimated combined total at the time of the May 2 primary was $50 million dollars.[20]
[edit] Election results
| 2006 gubernatorial election, Ohio | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
| Democratic | Ted Strickland | 2,307,420 | 60.4 | +22.1 | |
| Republican | Ken Blackwell | 1,406,792 | 36.8 | -19.0 | |
| Libertarian | Bill Peirce | 67,596 | 1.8 | n/a | |
| Green | Bob Fitrakis | 38,987 | 1.0 | n/a | |
| Majority | 900,628 | 21.6 | |||
| Turnout | 3,820,795 | ||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | Swing | ||||
Strickland won the overwhelming majority of Ohio's counties, although Blackwell did respectably in some traditionally Republican areas, mostly in western Ohio. [1]
[edit] Polling
Since the first polls on the general election matchup were taken in November 2005, Strickland led Blackwell, though the margin substantially increased in March of 2006.
The greatest margin recorded in an individual poll was found in the October 26, 2006 SurveyUSA poll which showed Strickland leading by 30 points. The smallest recorded margin was the February 6, 2006 Zogby poll showing Strickland leading by a mere 3 points. When the results are averaged across the different polls, the greatest margin was in October 2006 with a difference of 22.6 points in favor of Strickland. The smallest average margin was during January of 2006 with Strickland leading Blackwell by 4 points.
| Source | Date | Strickland (D) | Blackwell (R) | Peirce (L) | Fitrakis (G) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA | November 6, 2006 | 55% | 38% | 2% | 1% |
| University of Cincinnati | November 6, 2006 | 59% | 37% | 4% (Independents combined) | |
| CNN | October 31, 2006 | 59% | 36% | ||
| Survey USA | October 26, 2006 | 62% | 32% | 1% | 1% |
| Quinnipiac | October 18, 2006 | 59% | 32% | ||
| NY Times/CBS News | October 18, 2006 | 53% | 29% | 2% (Independents combined) | |
| University of Cincinnati | October 14, 2006 | 52% | 38% | 3% | 1% |
| Survey USA | October 12, 2006 | 60% | 32% | 2% | 1% |
| Rasmussen | October 6, 2006 | 52% | 40% | ||
| Zogby | September 28, 2006 | 48.3% | 39.7% | ||
| Survey USA | September 28, 2006 | 56% | 35% | 2% | 2% |
| Rasmussen | September 20, 2006 | 54% | 35% | ||
| Quinnipiac | September 19, 2006 | 56% | 34% | ||
| University of Cincinnati | September 17, 2006 | 50% | 38% | 3% | 2% |
| Zogby | September 11, 2006 | 47.5% | 41.8% | ||
| Zogby | August 28, 2006 | 49.7% | 41.4% | ||
| Rasmussen | August 27, 2006 | 57% | 32% | ||
| Survey USA | August 7, 2006 | 57% | 35% | 2% | 1% |
| Rasmussen | August 1, 2006 | 50% | 39% | ||
| Zogby | July 24, 2006 | 48.4% | 43.8% | ||
| Columbus Dispatch | July 23, 2006 | 47% | 27% | ||
| Rasmussen | June 27, 2006 | 50% | 37% | ||
| Zogby | June 21, 2006 | 49.1% | 44.3% | ||
| Survey USA | June 13, 2006 | 53% | 37% | 2% | 1% |
| University of Cincinnati | May 25, 2006 | 50% | 44% | 2% (Independents combined) | |
| Rasmussen | May 18, 2006 | 52% | 36% | ||
| Rasmussen | April 25, 2006 | 52% | 35% | ||
| Rasmussen | March 31, 2006 | 50% | 40% | ||
| Rasmussen | February 19, 2006 | 47% | 35% | ||
| Zogby | February 6, 2006 | 38% | 35% | ||
| Rasmussen | January 7, 2006 | 44% | 40% | ||
| Rasmussen | November 15, 2005 | 42% | 36% | ||
[edit] See also
[edit] References
[edit] External links
- Candidate web sites
- Blackwell-Raga for Governor
- Ted Strickland for Governor
- Bob Fitrakis for Governor
- Bill Peirce for Governor
- Betty Montgomery for Attorney General - withdrew before primary to run in attorney general race
- Bryan Flannery for Governor
- James Lundeen for Governor - did not qualify for ballot
