Conflict: Middle East Political Simulator

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Conflict: Middle East Political Simulator
Developer(s)	David J Eastman
Publisher(s)	Virgin Interactive
Platform(s)	MS-DOS, Atari ST, Amiga
Release date	1990
Genre(s)	Government simulation game
Mode(s)	Single Player

Conflict: Middle East Political Simulator, often known as ConfMEPS or simply Conflict, is a turn-based government simulation game. It was designed by David J Eastman and published by Virgin Interactive in 1990. It was available for DOS, Atari ST, and Amiga (with extended graphics).

The game is set in 1997. The prime minister of Israel has just been assassinated, leaving the player to run the country as the new prime minister. The player's objective is to cause the defeat of the neighboring four states, either by invasion (not necessarily by Israel, as the other states can and do invade each other) or political destabilization.

Contents 1 Gameplay 1.1 Diplomacy 1.2 Espionage 1.3 Military 1.3.1 Defense Budget 1.3.2 Nuclear Weapon Research 1.3.3 Annual Defense Budget Review 1.3.4 American Budget Aid 1.4 Palestinian Problem 1.5 Military Actions 2 War 3 States 3.1 Egypt 3.2 Jordan 3.3 Lebanon 3.4 Libya 3.5 Iran 3.6 Iraq 3.7 Syria 4 Strategy 5 Tactics 6 Bugs 7 External links

[edit] Gameplay

Each game turn represents one month in real time. Each turn the player decides what diplomatic, espionage and military actions to take with regard to the other countries in the game, and then ends the turn. The game engine then runs and the results of the turn occur (each turn begins in fact with some information about what has occurred in the previous turn being presented as a screen of newspaper headlines).

The actions available to the player are broken up into two phases: diplomatic/espionage and military.

[edit] Diplomacy

Each country in the game has a diplomatic relationship with every other country in the game, with that relationship varying from military pact (best) to war (worst), through a number of stages:

• Excellent (military pact)
• Profitable
• Beneficial
• Favourable
• Satisfactory
• Workable
• Indifferent
• Lamentable
• Deplorable
• No relations
• At War

Each turn the player directly sets Israeli diplomatic policy with regard to the other countries in the game. Diplomatic policy is very simple: Israel is either trying to improve the diplomatic relationship, keep it as it is, or make it worse. The action change in the relationship for a turn depends upon Israeli policy set against the policy of the other country; if both are trying to improve, the relationship will improve by one step. If either tries to make the relationship worse, it will deteriorate by one step. Otherwise, it remains steady.

When a relationship is Indifferent and Israel decides to reduce the relationship in the diplomatic phase, or if the relationship is at Lamentable or Deplorable, Israel can declare war and invade.

When a relationship is at Profitable, the player can choose to request a military pact. If this is given, then if Israel goes to war with a country which also has a border with the allied country, that country will in turn reduce its relationship to Lamentable and then declare war. (Note however there is no such obligation placed upon the player, who can simply ignore wars his pact partner enters into).

[edit] Espionage

Each country's Government has a stability rating. If that rating falls to the lowest value, the Government collapses and the country is out of the game. Each turn, for each country in the game, Israel can choose to work to reduce the stability of the Government, keep it as it is, or increase the stability of the Government.

Stability ratings are:

• Very solid
• Firm
• Moderately solid
• Good
• Fair
• Fragile
• Weak
• Very weak
• Dangerously weak
• Close to revolution

Also, each country has a level of insurgency, which represents how well-organized the insurgent forces are. Insurgency ratings are:

• Ready for action!
• Guerilla Force
• Strengthening
• Ineffective
• Disorganised Rabble
• Non-existent

If a country's stability rating is Weak or below or if the insurgency the country is at Guerilla Force or better, Israel can opt to consider extreme measures, which are to attempt assassination of the country's leader or start a coup. If this attempt succeeds, the country collapses and is out of the game.

However, if the assassination attempt fails, Israel is detected and relations with that country and with the West sour. Also, if an attempted coup fails, the insurgent forces are usually destroyed. A coup is very unlikely to succeed unless the insurgents are very strong and the government is very weak, so a premature coup which destroys the insurgency can be a useful strategy for helping a government (often much more effective than disrupting a fast-growing insurgency).

Once diplomatic and espionage policy is set, the player moves on to the military actions. It is not possible to come back to diplomacy and espionage once the player has completed diplomacy and espionage and moved to military actions.

[edit] Military

The player has two tasks to perform; the first is to spend the defense budget, the second is to set military actions with regard to the other countries in the game.

[edit] Defense Budget

Each turn, the player receives a budget to spend on weaponry. The size of the budget seems to depend on the level of hostility in the surrounding countries; if Israel is at war, or if another country is in the process of reducing diplomatic relations to declare war, the budget is large (300 million plus, per turn). If the level of hostility is low, and life is peaceful, the budget is small (100 million).

As such, the defence budget awarded by the game is an indicator of the policy intent of neighbouring countries; if they're peaceful, the budget will be small, if one or more countries is bent on war, the budget will be large.

Weapons are bought from the USA, United Kingdom, France or a private arms dealer. (Each country sells weapons that it itself produces, except the private dealer, who is a South African providing access to Russian weaponry.) Each source offers a different range of weapons with different prices and most countries will only offer better weapons once a reasonable number of purchases have already been made (which establishes that a relationship has been built up). Not all countries offer all weapons; for example, anti-SAM helicopters are only available from the USA and the private dealer.

The weapon systems available for normal combat are:

• main battle tanks
• light tanks
• anti-tank helicopters
• anti-SAM helicopters
• SAM units
• fighter aircraft

Specialized-function weapon systems available are:

• AWACS aircraft
• Strike aircraft

Weapon types are identical as far as war is concerned, regardless of their price: so the 1M USD T-62 Main Battle Tank from the private dealer is exactly the same as the 2M USD M1A1 Main Battle Tank from the USA. Price differences can be significant over a few turns; for example, fighters are 39M USD each from the USA but only 35M USD each from France.

[edit] Nuclear Weapon Research

Another factor in the game is the development of nuclear weapons. Each country can begin and maintain a nuclear weapon development program. One of the main ways to lose the game is for nuclear weapons to be used, which often sets off a global nuclear conflict. This can present a problem to gameplayers, since it can be other countries that use nuclear weapons in their own conflicts against countries other than Israel. It is possible to reduce this possibility by destroying nuclear installations as they arise.

Each turn, the player decides whether to fund nuclear development for that month (it only costs 20M USD and so is usually done).

[edit] Annual Defense Budget Review

Each year, Israel can choose to increase or decrease the GDP percentage of the defense budget (it starts at 35%) by 2%, and to increase the size of the Army by two units (which apparently harms the relationship with the USA).

[edit] American Budget Aid

Every year, the USA provides economic aid to Israel. This varies between nothing and four billion dollars, depending on how good Israel's relationship is with the USA. (To put that into context, a large monthly defense budget, such as would be granted during an active war, is about 350 million dollars).

[edit] Palestinian Problem

The game also models the problems caused by the Palestinian situation. The "Palestinian problem" is Israel's internal insurgency, just as the other countries have their insurgency and concomittant Government stability problem. Other countries presumably can choose to act to stoke Palestinian discontent, and as the player becomes unsuccessful and increasing unpopular, the Palestinian situation worsens - eventually, this will cause the player to be deposed and so lose the game.

The player can choose to deploy a brigade to police Gaza and the West Bank, which is supposed to help reduced discontent. Once a brigade has been deployed, the player can choose "soft" or "hard" tactics. Hard tactics presumably are more effective, but cause international outcry, presumably reducing relations with the USA and so affecting their annual military grant.

During the annual UN convention, an offer can be made to form a Palestinian homeland, which permanently removes this problem and improves relations with the USA. There appears to be no disadvantage to choosing this route.

[edit] Military Actions

Prior to war, Israel can launch precision air strikes against bordering countries.

These strikes can be performed on military, civilian or nuclear targets. Nuclear targets can be attacked at any time, and doing so retards or even eliminates the development of that country's nuclear program (which then continues as before, but from its retarded development level). Military and civilian targets can only be attacked if the diplomatic relationship with a country is very bad. Military strikes may destroy a very few army units (five main battle tanks, for example). Civilian strikes are done particularly to reduce diplomatic relationships.

If the diplomatic relationship with a country is bad enough, and there are Israeli troops deployed on the border, Israel can invade, or be invaded. This triggers war.

[edit] War

A country can only invade countries with a shared border. The four states neighboring Israel in Conflict are Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.

Libya, Iraq and Iran are also present in the game, and can invade the countries which neighbor them, but they have no common border with Israel and so cannot be invaded by Israel (and do not have to be defeated to win the game).

The Israeli army, at the beginning of the game, consists of:

• 7 brigades of infantry
• 2000 main battle tanks
• 50 light tanks
• 20 SAM units
• 200 fighter aircraft
• 0 anti-tank helicopters
• 0 anti-SAM helicopters

When a war occurs, certain unit types attack certain other unit types in the opposing army. So, for example, anti-tank helicopters destroy enemy tanks, while losing a certain number of their own numbers in the process (which may relate to the number of SAM units).

• infantry seems to be the main determinant of whether or not the battle is being won or lost
• main battle tanks probably attack other main battle tanks and support infantry
• light tanks don't obviously attack anything; they may support infantry
• anti-tank helicopters reduce opposing tank numbers, and rather effectively too - it's better to buy 50 anti-tank helicopters than to buy the replacement tanks you could get for the same money
• anti-SAM helicopters reduce SAM numbers (but only at the ratio of about 1 to 1, so it costs 8M for a single helicopter do destroy a single 1M or 2M SAM unit - but SAM units attack 39M aircraft, so it may be worth it!)
• SAM units ought to attack all air units, but often don't seem to have an effect; for example, if Israeli has literally thousands of SAM units, enemy aircraft don't seem to be affected much at all
• fighter aircraft seem to attack everything and seem to have a fair effect on battle progress, although they take losses rapidly

[edit] States

Each country is unique and has its own diplomatic agenda, Government stability and military capability.

[edit] Egypt

Egypt is very stable diplomatically. It takes many, many turns of destabilization to topple the Government. Egypt also has the largest army in the game and in a one-to-one war with Israel will generally win. Israel can defeat Egypt, but it requires either a perfectly executed surprise attack, a very strong Israeli army, Libya attacking Egypt simultaneously, or a nuclear attack.

Egypt is bordered by Libya and Israel.

When the game begins, Egypt is usually securely at peace with Israel, but very occasionally, Egypt is about to go to war with Israel (relations are already Lamentable).

[edit] Jordan

Jordan is diplomatically stable and takes a considerable number of turns of destabilization to topple. Militarily, Jordan is a pushover, having a very small Army, although exceptionally with a very large air force. Jordan can defeat Israel if Israel only has one brigade deployed in a war with Jordan, but otherwise, the war is over in one turn.

Jordan is bordered by Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Iraq.

Jordan very occasionally attacks Israel if Israel is already committed to a long war with another country (which is to say, Egypt or Syria, since no other neighbor can maintain a long war). Apart from that, Jordan is passive and is usually gobbled up by Syria or Iraq.

[edit] Lebanon

Lebanon is highly unstable and will collapse of its own accord if another country doesn't invade it first; in fact, Lebanon will collapse of its own accord even if the Israel player is always trying to disrupt the insurgency and support the Government! Lebanon is also militarily the weakest country; Israel can defeat Lebanon using a single brigade.

Lebanon is bordered by Syria and Israel.

Lebanon very rarely declares war on other counries.

[edit] Libya

Libya is stable but militarily weak.

Libya is bordered only by Egypt.

Libya sometimes declares war on Egypt (and Egypt sometimes declares war on Libya). Egypt always wins immediately, unless already at war with Israel, in which case Libya always wins (although Egypt very occasionally survives one turn). If Egypt is not actually at war with Israel, but Israel has fully mobilized on the Egyptian border and so Egypt has likewise fully mobilized, the Libyian/Egyptian conflict can be quite prolonged, but Egypt usually still wins (and hasn't taken too many losses, since they only had one brigade in combat).

[edit] Iran

Iran does not share a border with Israel. Iran is hostile to Iraq and almost always ends up at war with Iraq. The main issue is ensuring Iran doesn't trigger global nuclear war. Generally, it's best to destabilize Iran into collapsing, since this permits Iraq to threaten some of the countries which share a border with Israel.

[edit] Iraq

Iraq is a relatively stable country with a moderate military. In almost every game Iraq will inevitablity end up at war with Iran. In other situations however, Syria and Jordan become targeted first, in the case of Jordan the war is usually over in less than a turn with Iraq conquering Jordan. In a match up with Syria, Iraq tends to even out, leading to multiple turns of both nations at war. Against Iran the same situation happens leading to multiple turns of war, usually ending in an Iran victory. Due to Iraq's useful position neighboring two of Israel's border nations, Iraq can be a useful ally in defeating Syria and Jordan if used correctly.

Iraq is bordered by Jordan, Syria, and Iran.

[edit] Syria

Syria is a relatively politically stable country. Following Egypt, it is the country with the second largest army. Trying to destabilize Syria politically would take many turns and generally will not be effective unless it is at war. Israel can usually defeat Syria, but it is a rather well-balanced matchup that can go either way.

Syria is bordered by Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq.

When the game starts, Syria is either Indifferent or Workable with Israel.

[edit] Strategy

Israel, in a one-to-one war, usually loses against Egypt and just wins against Syria. Jordan and Lebanon are not military threats and are easily defeated. Libya is sometimes invaded by Egypt. Libya can be useful in a war against Egypt by invading them while Egypt's army is fully engaged with Israel. This ends the war, which is necessary since Egypt usually wins, but it does mean Libya conquers Egypt rather than Israel.

Iran and Iraq usually go to war against each other; Iran usually wins in the end, but this is always a protracted conflict with both sides trying to develop nuclear weapons--the war between Iran and Iraq is a source of game ends, where their exchange of nuclear weapons triggers a global holocaust. Egypt can sometimes decide to go to war against Israel, and Syria sooner or later always decides to go to war against Israel (although it will sometimes mop up Jordan and Lebanon first).

The main problem the player faces is ensuring that Egypt and Syria do not attack concurrently, since this always leads to defeat. The other problem is trying to conquer Egypt, for maximum points. Egypt can be conquered, but it requires a surprise attack and some luck.

The optimal game approach seems to be to take Egypt out immediately with a perfect surprise attack using a single brigade to push the war right to the Egyptian side, followed by invading Lebanon before it collapses and Jordan before anyone else invades it, while attempting to topple Iran by espionage (to prevent nuclear war with Iraq) and then, finally, invading and defeating Syria.

[edit] Tactics

It can be useful to mobilize fully against a country while keeping the diplomatic relationship good. This causes that country to mobilize their army on the Israeli border--which makes them extremely vulnerable to any other country who wishes to attack them.

[edit] Bugs

There is a major bug in all ports of Conflict such that if the player is doing particularly well, the game often hangs in the final turn.

There are some suspected bugs in the war code for managing the losses of different unit types; it seems that SAM units sometimes have absolutely no effect whatsoever.

There appears to be a bug of some sort with regard to the defense budget; if the game lasts a long time, the defense budget eventually, one year, is set to 0% instead of the normal 35%. The budget can still be increased by 2% per year as normal, but as one might expect, the actual monetary value of the budget is then uselessly low.

[edit] External links

• Conflict: Middle East Political Simulator - site from the designer
• Conflict: Middle East Political Simulator - review of all the versions and remakes
• Game review and screenshots
• Conflict.NET Remake - undergoing redesign
• Conflict for Mac - Mac OS X Port of Conflict: Middle East Political Simulator