Spread betting
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Spread betting is any of various types of wagering on the outcome of an event, where the pay-off is based on the accuracy of the wager, rather than a simple "win or lose" outcome, which is known as money-line betting. A spread is a range of outcomes, and the bet is whether the outcome will be above or below the spread. Spread betting has been a major growth market in the UK in recent years, with the number of gamblers heading towards one million.[1] As with all gambling, however, spread betting carries a high level of risk.[2] In the UK, spread betting is regulated by the Financial Services Authority rather than the Gambling Commission.[3]
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[edit] Purpose
The general purpose of spread betting is to create an active market for both sides of a wager, even if the outcome of an event may appear a priori to be biased towards one side or the other. In a sporting event, for example, a strong team may be pitted against a historically weaker team. Persons betting on the event normally would be likely to favor the better team, to such an extent that there would be very few, if any, betting on the team perceived to be worse.
The use of a "point spread" evens out the market towards an equal number of participants on each side of the wager. This allows a bookmaker to make a market by accepting wagers on both sides of the spread. The bookmaker charges a commission and acts as the counterparty for each participant. As long as the number of participants on each side is roughly equal, the bookmaker is unconcerned with the actual outcome; profits instead come from the commissions.
[edit] Spreads in sports wagering
Spread betting was invented by Charles K. McNeil, a mathematics teacher from Connecticut who became a bookmaker in Chicago in the 1940s.[4] The idea became popular in the United Kingdom in the 1980s. In North America, the gambler usually wagers that the difference between the scores of two teams will be less than or greater than the value specified by the bookmaker. An example:
- The bookmaker advertises a spread of 4 points in a certain game;
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- If the gambler bets on the "underdog", he is said to take the points and will win if the underdog's score plus the spread is greater than the favourite's score.
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- The eventual score is Underdog 8, Favourite 10: 8 + 4 > 10, so the gambler wins;
- The eventual score is Underdog 8, Favourite 13: 8 + 4 < 13, so the gambler loses.
- If the gambler bets on the "favourite", he gives the points and will win if the favourite's score minus the spread is greater than the underdog's score:
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- The eventual score is Underdog 4, Favourite 10: 10 - 4 > 4, so the gambler wins;
- The eventual score is Underdog 8, Favourite 10: 10 - 4 < 8, so the gambler loses.
Spreads may be specified in half-point fractions to avoid ties, or pushes. In the event of a tie after factoring in the point spread, the game is considered no action, and no money is won or lost.[5]
- The winner of a North American spread bet wins his stake, while a losing gambler loses the stake plus the bookmaker's commission (commonly known as the vigorish or vig, usually 10% of the stake); a push is treated as if no bet had been made.
- In the United Kingdom both sides play at odds of 9/10 and "dead heat" rules apply, resulting in a net loss of £5 on a £100 wager, due to the 9/10 odds of the proposition.
If a key player on a side is injured and may not play, the bookmaker may refuse to accept bets by not quoting a spread on the event, or may "circle" the game; in this case, lower maximum amounts for each bet are enforced (typically $5,000 instead of the $25,000 limit observed at most Las Vegas sports books) and certain specialty wagers, such as "teasers", are prohibited.
- A teaser is a bet that alters the spread in the gambler's favor by a predetermined margin, often six points— for example, if the line is 3.5 points and the bettor wants to place a teaser bet on the underdog, he takes 9.5 points instead; a teaser bet on the favorite would mean that the gambler takes 2.5 points instead of having to give the 3.5. In return for the additional points, the payout if the gambler wins is less than even money. At some establishments, the "reverse teaser" also exists, which alters the spread against the gambler, who gets paid at more than evens if the bet wins.
Example: In a soccer match the bookmaker believes that 12 or 13 corners will occur, thus the spread will be set at 12-13.
- A gambler believes that there will be more than 13 corners, and 'buys' at £25 a point at 13.
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- If the number of corners is 16, the gambler wins (16 - 13) = 3 x £25.
- If the number of corners is 10, the gambler loses (13 - 10) = 3 x £25.
- A 'sell' transaction is similar except that it is made against the bottom value of the spread.
- Often "live pricing" will change the spread during the course of an event, allowing a profit to be increased or a loss minimized.
In North American sports betting many of these wagers would be classified as over-under (or, more commonly today, total) bets rather than spread bets. However, these are for one side or another of a total only, and do not increase the amount won or lost as the actual moves away from the bookmaker's prediction. Instead, over-under or total bets are handled much like point-spread bets on a team, with the usual 10/11 (4.55%) commission applied. Many Nevada sports books will allow these bets to be used in parlays, just like team point-spread bets, making it possible to bet, for instance, "the Packers and the over," and be paid if both the Packers "cover" the point spread and the total score is higher than the book's prediction. (Such parlays usually pay off at odds of 13:5 with no "vig," just as a standard two-team parlay would.)
In 2004 Cantor Fitzgerald launched the spread betting exchange Cantor Spreadfair, which matches up spread bettors opposing views and allows them to bet with each other. This removal of the faceless bookmaker allows clients to bet at the spread size and monetary level that they request, and in turn this creates a tighter spread margin, which in turn allows users to lose less and win more than with the non-exchange spread-betting firms.
The mathematical analysis of spreads and spread betting is a large and growing subject. For example, sports that have simple 1-point scoring systems (e.g., baseball, hockey, and soccer) may be analysed using Poisson and Skellam statistics.
[edit] Greatest spread reversals
- 1985 - College Football - Oregon State beats Washington, 21-20. The Huskies were 37-point favorites.
- 1998 - College Football - Temple, a 35.5 point underdog, beats #14 ranked Virginia Tech 28-24 on the road. At the time, the Hokies were 5-0 while the Owls were 0-6.
- 2007 - College Football - The Syracuse Orange, 36.5 point underdogs, beat #18 ranked Louisville 38-35 at Louisville.
- 2007 - College Football - The Stanford Cardinal, 41 point underdogs, beat the #2 ranked USC Trojans 24-23 at LA Coliseum.
[edit] Financial spread betting
By far the largest part of the official market in the UK concerns financial instruments; the leading spread-betting companies make most of their revenues from financial markets, their sports operations much less significant. For example, in the figures for the second half of 2006, the income derived from financial spread betting at IG Group, was £29.3m, compared to £3.8m in sports.[citation needed]. Other Major companies in the sector are CMC Markets, City Index and MF Global Spreads. Financial spread betting in the United Kingdom closely resembles the futures and options markets, the major differences being
- the 'charge' occurs through a wider bid-offer spread;
- spread betting has a different tax regime compared with securities and futures exchanges
- spread betting is more flexible since it is not limited to exchange hours or definitions, can create new instruments relatively easily (e.g. individual stock futures), and may have guaranteed stop losses (see below); and
- the trading is off-exchange, with the contract existing directly between the market-making company and the client, rather than exchange-cleared, and is thus subject to a lower level of regulation. Although the spread betting companies themselves are some of the most regulated entities in the City of London.
Unlike fixed-odds betting, the amount won or lost can be unlimited as there is no single stake to limit any loss. However, it is usually possible to negotiate limits with the bookmaker:
- A "stop loss" will automatically close the bet if the spread moves against the gambler by a specified amount.
- A "stop win" will close the bet when the spread moves in a gambler's favour by a specified amount.
Spread betting has moved outside the ambit of sport and financial markets (that is, those dealing solely with shares and futures), to cover a wide range of markets, such as house prices.[6]
In a falling stockmarket, financial spread betting can also be used by investors as a means of hedging against predicted losses in a portfolio of shares.[7]
[edit] Financial spread bet example
Suppose Lloyds TSB is trading on the market at 410p bid, and 411p offer. A spread-betting company is also offering 410-411p. We use cash bets with no definite expiry.
For example, if I think the share price is going to go up, I might bet £10 a point (i.e., £10 per penny the shares moves) at 411p. We use the offer price since I am "buying" the share (betting on its increase). Note that my total loss (if LloydsTSB went to 0p) could be up to £4110, so this is as risky as buying 1000 of the shares normally.
If a bet goes overnight, the bettor is charged a financing cost (or receives it, if the bettor is shorting the stock). This might be set at LIBOR + a certain percentage, usually around 2/3%.
Thus, in the example, if Lloyds TSB are trading at 411p, then for every day I keep the bet open I am charged [taking finance cost to be 7%] ((411p x 10) * 7% / 365 ) = £0.78821 (or 78.8p)
On top of this, the bettor needs an amount (AKA margin) in the spread-betting account to cover the bet. Usually this is either 5 or 10% of the total exposure you are taking on but can go up to 100% on illiquid stocks. In this case £4150 * 0.1 or 0.05 = £411.00 or £ 205.50
If at the end of the bet Lloyds TSB traded at 400-401p, I need to cover that £4110 - £400*10 (£4000) = £110 difference by putting extra deposit (or margin) into the account.
The bettor will usually receive all dividends and other corporate adjustments in the financing charge each night. For example, suppose Lloyds TSB goes ex-dividend with dividend of 23.5p. The bettor will receive that amount.
[edit] See also
- Asian handicap
- Bet exchange
- Bookmaker
- Contract for difference
- FootyTAB
- Parimutuel betting
- Point shaving
- Sports betting
- Spread trade
[edit] Notes
- ^ The Sunday Times: World Cup to kick off boom in spread betting
- ^ The Times: The perils of spread-betting
- ^ Gambling Commission
- ^ Gambling Times: What are the Odds?
- ^ Sports Bet Types http://www.sportsbookpatrol.com/sportsbook-school-101/sports-bet-types.php
- ^ The Sunday Times: Spread betting
- ^ MoneyWeek: How to profit from market turmoil
[edit] References
[edit] Further reading
- Malcolm Pryor (2007). The Financial Spread Betting Handbook. Harriman House. ISBN 189-7597-93-2.
- John Piper (2007). Binary Betting. Harriman House. ISBN 190-5641-23-0.
