Scottish Parliament election, 2011

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The 2011 Scottish Parliament election will be held on Thursday 5 May 2011 to elect members to the Scottish Parliament. It will be the fourth general election.

Local council elections are due to take place on the same day, but are likely to be moved, perhaps to 2012, following the publication of the Gould Report.

1 Date
2 Election system
3 Top target seats of the main parties
4 References
5 See also

[edit] Date

Under the Scotland Act 1998, ordinary general elections to the Scottish Parliament are held on the first Thursday in May every four years (1999, 2003, 2007 and so on).^[1] The date of the poll may be varied by up to one month either way by the monarch, on the proposal of the Presiding Officer.^[1]

If the Parliament itself resolves that it should be dissolved (with at least two-thirds of the Members voting in favour), or if the Parliament fails to nominate one of its members to be First Minister within certain time limits, the Presiding Officer proposes a date for an extraordinary general election and the Parliament is dissolved by the monarch by royal proclamation.

No extraordinary general elections have been held to date. Any extraordinary general elections would be in addition to ordinary general elections, unless held less than six months before the due date of an ordinary general election, in which case they supplant it. The subsequent ordinary general election reverts to the first Thursday in May, a multiple of four years after 1999 (i.e., 5 May 2011, 7 May 2015, etc).^[2]

[edit] Election system

The total number of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) elected to the Parliament is 129.

The First Periodical Review of the Scottish Parliament's constituencies and regions, to be conducted by the Boundary Commission for Scotland, was announced on 3 July 2007. The Commission aims to publish its provisional proposals for the regional boundaries by the summer of 2009. It is due to submit its final report to the Secretary of State for Scotland by 30 June 2010.^[3]

There are 73 constituencies, each electing one (MSP) by the plurality (first past the post) system of election; and 8 additional member regions, each electing 7 additional member MSPs. The D'Hondt method is used to calculate which additional member MSPs the regions elect. Each constituency is a sub-division of a region; the additional members system is designed to produce approximate proportional representation for each region.

The Scottish Parliament constituencies have not been coterminous with Scottish Westminster constituencies since the 2005 UK general election, when the 72 former Westminster constituencies were replaced with a new set of 59, generally larger, constituencies (see Scottish Parliament (Constituencies) Act 2004).

[edit] Top target seats of the main parties

Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 5% from the 2007 result to change hands.

[edit] SNP targets

Rank	Constituency		Swing to gain	SNP's place 2007
1	Aberdeen Central	Labour	0.9	2nd
2	Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale	Liberal Democrats	0.95	2nd
3	Linlithgow	Labour	1.95	2nd
4	Glasgow Kelvin	Labour	2.55	2nd
5	Airdrie and Shotts	Labour	2.65	2nd
6	Dumbarton	Labour	2.65	2nd
7	East Kilbride	Labour	2.75	2nd
8	Edinburgh Central	Labour	2.8	3rd
9	Falkirk East	Labour	3.1	2nd
10	Midlothian	Labour	3.4	2nd
11	East Lothian	Labour	3.5	2nd
12	Cumbernauld and Kilsyth	Labour	3.9	2nd
13	West Renfrewshire	Labour	3.95	3rd
14	Clydesdale	Labour	4.35	2nd
15	Dunfermline West	Liberal Democrats	4.5	3rd
16	Aberdeen South	Liberal Democrats	4.6	2nd
17	Cunninghame South	Labour	4.6	2nd
18	Strathkelvin and Bearsden	Labour	4.6	2nd
19	Edinburgh North and Leith	Labour	4.7	3rd

[edit] Labour targets

Rank	Constituency		Swing to gain	Labour's place 2007
1	Cunninghame North	Scottish National Party	0.05	2nd
2	Dunfermline West	Liberal Democrats	0.8	2nd
3	Ochil	Scottish National Party	0.8	2nd
4	Stirling	Scottish National Party	0.95	2nd
5	Livingston	Scottish National Party	1.3	2nd
6	Falkirk West	Scottish National Party	1.35	2nd
7	Glasgow Govan	Scottish National Party	1.75	2nd
8	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Scottish National Party	2	2nd
9	Central Fife	Scottish National Party	2.15	2nd
10	Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	Scottish National Party	2.3	2nd
11	Western Isles	Scottish National Party	2.5	2nd
12	Edinburgh South	Liberal Democrats	2.95	2nd
13	Dundee West	Scottish National Party	4	2nd

[edit] Conservative targets

Rank	Constituency		Swing to gain	Con place 2007
1	Eastwood	Labour	1.1	2nd
2	Perth	Scottish National Party	3.55	2nd
3	Stirling	Scottish National Party	3.6	3rd
4	West Renfrewshire	Labour	3.7	2nd
5	Dumfries	Labour	4.25	2nd

[edit] Liberal Democrat targets

Rank	Constituency		Swing to gain	LD's place 2007
1	Argyll and Bute	Scottish National Party	1.4	2nd
2	Edinburgh Central	Labour	2	2nd
3	Gordon	Scottish National Party	2.9	2nd
4	Edinburgh North and Leith	Labour	3.85	2nd
5	Roxburgh and Berwickshire	Conservative	3.85	2nd